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The outcome of Pool 3 is likely to be decided with a week to spare when Newcastle Falcons and Brive meet in North East England on Thursday night.
Brive, who were the second winners of the Heineken Cup back in 1997, sit top of the table after four rounds of action, although they are level on points with the Falcons and are now second favourites to progress given that they have to travel to Kingston Park.
The French outfit have won three and drawn one of their tournament games so far but their failure to pick up a single try-scoring bonus point could come back to haunt them after their trip across the Channel.
Brive won the reverse fixture 23-16 at the Stade Amédée-Domenech in Round 2 but Newcastle picked up a losing bonus point in the process and have won their three other fixtures, crucially collecting maximum points at home to Cammi Rugby Calvisano in Round 3.
Newcastle have beaten five lots of French opposition at Kingston Park in recent seasons, with Lyon, Toulon, Bourgoin, Albi and Montauban all being disposed of, but Montpellier did triumph 6-0 at the same venue this time three years ago.
And while Brive are yet to win on the road in the Top 14 this term, they will take heart from the fact that their last visit to Newcastle was a successful one. Brive edged a fiercely competitive encounter 10-9 in January 2009 and a similar result would leave them on the brink of the quarter-finals for the second time in three seasons.
Newcastle last reached the knockout stages in 2010 and a repeat of their narrow home wins over Brive in 2007/08 and 2006/07 or their 51-19 thrashing of the visitors from 2005/06 would see them enter their final pool match at home to Bucharest Wolves with their destiny in their own hands.
Brive are now heavy favourites to qualify for the quarter-finals from Pool 3 after they edged out Newcastle Falcons at Kingston Park.
The French outfit headed across the Channel level on points with the Falcons and defeat of any sort would have seen Dean Richards and co seize control of the pool ahead of the final round of action.
But Brive produced a fine rear-guard action to limit their hosts to a single score, with a hat-trick of penalties from Thomas Laranjeira handing them a vital 9-7 victory.
It was Newcastle who dominated much of the first period but they didn’t trouble the scoreboard until the very final play of the half when referee Ian Davies awarded a penalty try to give them a 7-3 lead at the break.
They should have been in front much earlier than that but fly-half Joel Hodgson missed a brace of kickable penalties after his forwards had done the hard work. The 21 year-old sent his first effort narrowly wide of the near post after nine minutes before hitting the upright with his second attempt 16 minutes later.
The Falcons enjoyed a much bigger share of territory of possession but a series of knock-ons and a lack of creativity that has seen them score just six tries in the Aviva Premiership meant Brive survived unscathed.
The visitors, who won the second Heineken Cup final in 1997 and finished as runners up a year later, took the lead three minutes past the half hour as inside centre Laranjeira’s penalty crept inside the left post.
Things then swung dramatically in Newcastle’s favour when Brive went down to 13 men in the space of two minutes at the end of the first period. Yellow cards to lock Apisai Naikatini for pulling down Scott MacLeod at a lineout and No8 Kieran Murphy for playing scrum-half Warren Fury at a close-rage ruck handed the Falcons a huge advantage and they finally got off the mark as Davies lost patience at scrum time with the clock already in the red.
Newcastle failed to build on Brive’s lack of numbers after the break, though, and an early penalty from Laranjeira was the only change to the scoreline before they returned to 15 men.
The second period continued to make as uncomfortable viewing as the first for the Falcons in terms of the scoreboard and they were made to pay for a series of missed opportunities, with their failure to finish off Fury’s break after 66 minutes a standout moment, when Laranjeira struck the winning kick with five minutes remaining.
Newcastle had initially escaped when Murphy was held up over the line late on but Laranjeira then made up for two second half misses when Brive turned the screw at scrum time.
Brive now know that if they can avoid defeat at home to Cammi Rugby Calvisano a week today then a place in the last eight will be theirs.
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